Best Type Of Bet For Football
This is part 1 of a two part analysis of teasers.
Part II.A Look at Advanced Teaser Strategy
Best Type of Football Bet. Betting Guide, Share. When you consider your upcoming football betting tips there are many different ways you can attack the bookmakers. One real advantage for punters is the types of bets that are available for us to use, so we can use the right bet for the right situation. Here you will have all football bets. UEFA Champions League (Europe) Country: Europe. Total Teams: 32. Founded: 1955 (Rebranded in. Football Betting Football bets are by far the most popular in the world of sports betting and there are many factors that make this sport one of the best to bet on: it is played all year round, is followed all over the world and offers a vast number of games.
Teasers are one of the many different ways to bet football. If you’re brand new to sports betting, as in never placed a bet, you should read the article I just linked you to as the information contained in this article here is quite advanced. For others, if simple math makes your head spin, note that I touch on teasers in my simple to follow article on football betting systems. For anyone ready to learn, let’s dive into advanced teaser betting which is one the best ways to profit betting NFL football.
What is a Teaser Bet
A teaser bet is a parlay bet that uses modified point spreads. For example: a 2-team 6-point teaser on Giants -8.5 -110 and Patriots +4.5 -110 gives you Giants -2.5 and Patriots +10.5 as a parlay. The odds for 6-point teasers vary between bookies. To give an idea: 2-team 6-point teasers are generally offered at -110, 3-team 6-point teaser at +150 to +180 and 4-team 6-point teaser at +250 to +300. You’ll notice these pay less than standard parlays; this is because you have the added benefit of 6-points in your favor. In this article I’ll teach you everything required to make long term profits betting teasers.
Understanding the Odds
The first thing to understand about teasers is exactly what it is you are betting. Did you know a 2-team 6-point teaser at -110 is a parlay where each team is priced -262? Did you know a 3-team teaser at +180 is a parlay where each team is priced -244? If you’re already familiar with this math you can skip ahead; for those confused, allow me to illustrate this using simple math.
When betting at -110 we’re risking $1.10 to win $1.00, this means a successful bet returns $2.10 ($1.10 stake + $1.00 win). To calculate how often we need to win to break even, even when we use the formula risk/return = implied probability.
So here the math: 1.10/2.10=0.5238 (52.38%)
This tells us in a -110 teaser BOTH teams need to cover 52.38% of the time for us to break even. To see how often each team individually must win all we need to do is calculate the square root of 0.5238. You can do this via a root calculator (outside calculator); just enter 2 on the top field and 0.5238 in the bottom one. Doing this we see the answer is 0.7237 and this tells us each team must cover their point spread 72.37% to achieve the overall 52.38% required win rate. If we plug 72.37% into the implied probability field of our odds converter we see in American odds this is -262. This tells us is if we parlayed -262 with -262 the odds are -110. Therefore a 2-team 6-point teaser at -110 is a parlay with each team priced at -262.
Doing the math on a 3-team 6-point teaser +180: we start with $1.00 risked returns $2.80 ($1.00 stake + $1.80 win). So to calculate how often all three teams must win we take 1.00/2.80= 0.3571 (35.71%). This time we’re going to take the cubed root (3rd root) of 0.3571 because we’re dealing with 3 teams. Plugging this into a root calculator we see this solves to .7095 (70.95%). Once again using our odds converter we see 70.95% implied probability is -244 in American odds. So a parlay on -244, -244 and -244 pays +180. Therefore a 3-team 6-point teaser at +180 is a parlay where all teams are priced -244.
How to Beat Teasers
If you’re using 3-team 6-point +180 teasers you simply need to find a situation where teasing a point spread six points increases that teams expected win rate by 20.95%. Why? Because point spreads are a 50/50 proposition, and we’ve already determined in order to break even on 3-teams +180 teaser we need each team to win 70.95% of the time. 70.95%-50.00%=20.95%, so if a point spread is 20.95% more likely to cover when moved 6-points it is a +EV bet, if less than 20.95% it is a –EV wager and should be avoided. If we’re doing 2-team 6-point -110 teasers we need to increase the win rate by 72.37%-50.00%=23.37%. Hopefully this all makes sense! If not, reread it and keep in mind the math involved here is very simple.
Basic Strategy
Teasers were originally designed as a method to extract more money from recreational punters; however, along the way sharp sports bettors soon realized that with simple math and careful selection betting teasers can be quite profitable. Although the concept Basic Strategy Teasers has been around since the 1980’s, it was 2001 book by Stanford Wong titled “Sharp Sports Betting” that introduced this concept to the masses. Basic Strategy is based on the fact that almost 25% of NFL games are decided by either 3 or 7 points and around 38% of all NFL games are decided by 3 to 7 points. There are no other margins of victory close to these figures. Therefore simple logic tells us teasers that fully cross the 3 and the 7 at the best possible odds are the highest value of all teasers. This is called Basic Strategy or in some circles Wong Teasers.
To put this into a betting system, basic strategy is to tease underdogs +1.5 to +2.5 and favorites -7.5 to -8.5 in 6-point teasers. Basic strategy also states the best odds possible are required. As illustrated in the first section of this article 3-team 6-point teasers at +180 have better odds per team than 2-team 6-point teasers at -110. Therefore if on a given week there are 3 point spreads matching basic strategy criteria, 3-team teasers are a far better option than 2-team teasers.
Some Points about Basic Strategy
- Basic Strategy Teasers are very often +EV, but this is not always the case. The logic behind them only shows they are the best blind subset to wager on, nowhere does that logic quantify their profitability.
- It is important to check multiple online sportsbooks to confirm point spread you’re about to tease truly are +1.5 to +2.5 or -7.5 to -8.5. If your sportsbook list the line as -7.5, but one, two, or several others have the same team at -7, this should not be considered a basic strategy teaser.
- Basic Strategy refers only to NFL football. Despite belief to the contrary, there are in fact profitable college football teasers. To find these you need to understand advanced teaser strategy covered later in this article.
Best Betting Sites for Teasers
Prior to getting into advanced teaser strategy it is important to understand, punters who are beating teasers are doing so using lots of simple math and value shopping multiple online sportsbooks. A mistake novice bettors often make is to focus only on best teaser odds, meaning they want 3-team +180 not 3-team +170. However, what if there is 3 point spreads all +1.5 at every sportsbook (in other words the consensus line is +1.5 for each), yet one sportsbook that offered only +170 had these all priced at +3 -135? In case you’re not aware, the price such as -110 in +1.5 and -130 in +3 makes no difference to teaser payouts. Each site has “fixed odds” for teaser, so teasing +1.5 -110 to +7.5 or teasing +3 -130 to +9 results in the same payout. Generally speaking it’s important to get +180 on 3-team 6-point teasers however it is not the end all. If you understand advanced teaser strategy all things need to be considered to determine which option is best.
More to this point: 5Dimes.eu is well known for offering the best teaser odds overall, however they shade their lines in such as way it cost more to cross the 3 and the 7. Examples of how they accomplish this: say a team should be a -8.5 point favorite, 5Dimes might list them as -10.5 +130, or if a team is a +2.5 underdog 5Dimes might list them at +1 -125. On the point spread their expectation is the same; 5Dimes does this only to make it tougher to beat teasers. So although 5Dimes offers the best teaser odds, the value is often less than expected.
Again I must emphasize it is very important to use as many betting sites, bookies and sports books as possible when betting teasers. However, the site I find has the largest value the most often is www.bovada.lv. These guys offer 3-team 6-point teasers at +180, which is somewhat scarce these days. For example Intertops offers these at +170, Bookmaker at +160 and BetOnline at +150. Additionally, Bovada rarely shades their lines on -7.5 to -8.5 favorites, and often shades the lines on +1.5 to +2.5 underdogs to +3. So the one place they do shade the lines benefits teaser bettors. So while using multiple betting sites is important, opening an account at www.bovada.lv is an also near must for any serious teaser bettor.
Even websites with poor teaser odds often have +EV teasers. For example BetOnline.ag offers teaser odds so poor it’s almost a crime they’re allowed to do so. However, they also offer 2-team 7.5 point teasers at -140 which is an option not many sites offer. On rare occasions when there are two strong 10 point NFL favorites on the same week, this teaser option often has positive expected value. Another site Bookmaker.eu isn’t very competitive on most teaser options; however, they offer 4-team 6-point teasers at +300. This is quite impressive compared to BetOnline +250, Pinnacle +260, Carib +260 and Sportbet +280 on the same. The point I’m attempting to drill home in this section: understanding the intricacies of several online betting sites and then shopping point spreads in depth is a major key to profitable teaser betting.
Author & Professional: Jim Griffin
Copyright 2017
Sports Betting Guide
Football bets
1X2 (Home win, draw, away win) - The most popular type of bets on football, the aim of which is to predict the final result of the match, either the win of the home team (1), a draw (X) or the win for the guests (2). Approximately, ¾ of all bets on football are 1X2 bets. Despite being the most popular type of bet in football, it is not considered the best. The reason for this is that despite there are matches where the winner is quite obvious, the odds for the favourites in such events are at a really low level. No experienced and respected punter will ever place a bet with the odds of about 3/10 (1.30) and lower. It is advised to bet with the minimal odds of 1/2 (1.50). What is more, the probability for successfully predicting the result in such bet is 33,3%, while in other types of bets it could even get up to more than 50%. This type of bet is often used in multiple bets such as double or treble accumulators (combo bets), in which you have to correctly predict the outcomes of few events to win an overall bet.
Example:
Real Madrid 3:1 Barcelona (1)
We win the bet as we successfully predicted the win for Real Madrid. If we had placed the bet for the draw or the win of Barcelona, we would have lost.
1X, X2, 1 or 2 (Double Chance) - A bet that is much safer than the classic 1X2. Here, we pick one of three options, a win for the home team or a draw, a draw or a win for the away team or a win for any side of the match. If any of the two results that we have chosen happen, we win the bet. Thus, we have 66.6% chances of winning a Double Chance bet. What is more, it is statistically proven that the most frequent half-time result is a draw. Because of its high probability, the odds for this type of bets are most times really low. We advise to bet on the draw or the underdogs using this option as the odds for them will be much higher. This option is less riskier than regular 1X2 bet on the underdog as we can win the bet even in case of a draw. Double Chance bets can be successfully used in betting on the events where it is hard to pick a winner because the odds on all results are relatively high and we still have very good probability.
Example:
Manchester United 2:2 Chelsea (1X)
Despite that the side we have picked - Manchester United, failed to win, we win the Double Chance bet because of the draw in this match.
DNB (Draw No Bet) - In general, this kind of bet is very similar to the Double Chance bet with the exception that in case of a draw, we will get the void of our entire stake instead of winning (1X or 2X) or losing (1 or 2) the bet. DNB bets are quite popular because they decrease the probability of a lost bet and the odds offered for them are higher than those offered for Double Chance bets. Punters are aware that a draw is very common result in football and that is why they often choose DNB as it narrows the possible outcomes of the match from three-way to two-way. It must be said that this kind of bet might not be available for all selections and at all bookmakers.
Example:
Borussia Dortmund 3:1 HSV Hamburg (Draw No Bet Borussia)
We win the bet because we correctly predicted the win for Borussia Dortmund. If there would be a draw in this game, we would get a complete return or our stake. We lose the bet if Hamburg would win this match.
Over / under - also known as total bet, it is a type of bet in which a punter must decide the total number of goals in a match. The bookmaker is setting the goal line and the punter’s job is to predict whether there will be more or less goals than the proposed line. It must be said here that in this bet we predict the combined number of goals in the match. This means that even if one of the teams do not score at all, we still can win the bet. There are also many variations of this type of bet, for example, you can bet on the total goals in the particular half or the total goals of one of the teams. One of the more popular versions of the Over / Under bet are the Asian goal lines. It is worth mentioning that the most popular goal line for Over / Under bets is set at 2,5 goals. In this type of bet it is good to look through the past performances of both teams and the numbers of goals they scored and conceded. You should also remember not to bet with odds lower than 7/10 (1.70).
Example:
PSG 1:2 Nice (Over 2,5)
We win the bet because there is more than 2,5 goals in the game. Whatever the score would be, we win the bet if there was at least 3 or more goals. If there was only 2 or less goal we would lose the bet.
BTTS or BTS (Both teams to score) - is a type of bet in which you predict whether both teams will score goals in the match or not. It should be noted that if only one team does score, regardless of the number of goals, the bet would be counted as lost. There are matches in which there is a very high probability of goals from both sides. Some teams score a lot of goals, but also concede many as well. They are the perfect pick for BTS option. What is more, it is advised to bet on this option if much better team plays a weaker one in an away game. Even the weakest side can manage to net a goal and you are almost certain that the favourite will score as well as he needs to win this game. As in case of other bets, it is best to not bet for Both to Score bet with odds lower than 7/10 (1.70).
Example:
Porto 0:1 Benfica (BTS)
We lose the bet because both teams did not scored. If Porto had managed to score as well we would win the bet.
Handicaps - is a type of a bet in which the bookmaker gives a disadvantage to the favourite or an advantage to the theoretically weaker team. In case of football, this is done by adding or removing goals from particular team to even the chances of victory for both sides. There are two types of handicaps - European and Asian. The latter is more popular because it decreases the number of possible outcomes to two, not three as it is in case of the European handicap. For example, in AH -1 (Asian handicap) we win the bet if the team that we placed our money on, wins the match with at least 2 goals difference. If that team wins with the difference of only one goal we get a complete void (return) of our stake. We lose the bet if our team draws or loses the match. Handicaps are getting more and more popular, especially among football punters. Read this guide on Handicaps to know more.
Example:
Manchester United 3:0 Manchester City (Manchester United AH -2)
We win the bet because our team have won with more than 3 goals difference. If they have scored less goals, drew or lost the match, we would lose our bet.
Corner bets - is a conditional bet for the number of corners in a match. It is similar to Over/Under bet in that there is a line provided by the bookmaker and the punter’s job is to decide whether there will be more or less corners than the offered line. It is one of the more riskier bets but the odds for it are mostly rather high. The most important factor here is the line offered by the bookmaker. Sometimes, to get good odds you must bet on the line of 14-15 corners. And although the statistics show that there is a few corners in every match, it is still a very unpredictable thing. It must be noted that the odds for lower lines such as 5 or 6 corners are very low. There is also an option to bet on the number of corners in a particular half. Furthermore, you can also bet on the number of corners of one of the teams. It is advised to bet on Over corners in matches of teams which prefer offensive style of playing. In such games you can expect both goals and a number of corners.
Example:
Arsenal 4:1 Everton - Overall 12 corners (Over 14 corners in a match)
We lose the bet as there was less corners than we have predicted. If we had made a bet for Under 14 corners in the game, we would have won.
Number of cards in a match - is another interesting conditional type of a bet in which you have to predict the number of either yellow or red cards in a match. This type of bet is similar to Over/Under bets in that you have to predict whether there will be more or less cards than the line proposed by the bookmaker. This kind of bet is recommended to more experienced punters who possess considerable knowledge about football. The most important thing here is to thoroughly analyse the event: the history of direct matches between the teams, their relations - whether they are rivals or not, relationships between the players, coaching staff or even fans and the style of playing of both teams. Often, there are games where you know there will be penalty cards even before the first whistle. While analysing a match, you cannot forget about the referee, who have great impact on the final result of the game. Read this article if you want to know more about bets for the the penalty cards.
Example:
Rangers 2:1 Celtic - Yellow cards: 8 (Under 6 yellow cards in a match)
We lose the bet as we have unsuccessfully predicted the number of penalty cards in a match. If there was less than 6 yellow cards we would have won.
Half time / Full time bets - also known as double result, a kind of bet in which you have to predict the outcome of the match at both half-time and full-time. In this type of bet the punter must decide which side will be winning at the end of the first half and which will win the game overall. You can bet that one of the teams will have the lead before the break and will ultimately finish victorious or you can decide to bet for different results at both halves. This type of bet is recommended mostly for more experienced punters who are not afraid to risk. It must be said, that sometimes, even the favorites may struggle in the whole game, not mentioning the first half. What is more, the statistics prove, that the most frequent football result at the half-time is a goalless draw. Because of that, the odds for such bets can be really attractive. Even when betting on a clear favourite, if you bet that he will be winning at half time and will keep the score till the final whistle, you can make quite a lot money. Nevertheless, it is often very hard to predict and thus win such bet. Sometimes all it takes is for the better team not to score in first half and finish the game in the second period. In other case, a team could win 2:0 or 3:0 at the half-time and will draw or lose the game. A great example of such result is the 2005 UEFA Champions League Final between AC Milan and Liverpool won by the Reds 3:2 in penalties despite losing 3:0 at half time.
Best Nfl Bets
Example:
AS Roma 2:0 (1:0) Inter Milan (AS Roma half time/full time)
We win the bet as we have correctly predicted that AS Roma will be winning after the first half and will win the match overall. If one of the results of the halves would be different we would lose the bet.
Correct score - As the name suggest it, in this bet, you have to predict the exact outcome of the match. This type of bet is advised only for the most experienced punters with nerves of steel or those who rely almost entirely on luck. It is one of the most difficult bets to win. Because of its low probability and a number of different variables, the odds for such bets are extremely high. Even with staking a single unit (for example $1 or 1£) you can win a lot of money because the odds for such bets can rise up to 500/1 (501.00). In most cases, the odds for quite probable results such as 1:0, 1:1 or 0:0, which are by the way the most common results in football, are roughly between 5/1 (6.00) and 15/1 (16.00). Thus, they are still high enough to make a lot of money with a smaller stake. This is the reason why a lot of punters attempt to bet using such bets. However, only a few are successful in a long-term.
What Are The Best Football Bets To Make
Example:
Ajax 2:1 PSV (Correct Score 1:0)
We lose the bet as the result of the selected match is different from the one we have predicted. In this type of bet we need to exactly predict the final outcome of the match in order to win.
Goal scorer - is a conditional bet where a punter must pick the goal scorer in a match or a competition. There are both bets for a player to score a goal in a particular game as well as an outright bets for the top goal scorers in the whole competitions. It must be said though, that in both cases, the odds for the best attackers of top teams are quite low. When a player scores 30-40 goals per season, you can be sure that the odds for him to score in a match or to become a top scorer will be very low. The key in betting on goal scorers is to place such wagers very early on, before the odds will drop. In single match betting, you can also risk betting on less-probable options with players that usually do not score many goals, but it is either their birthday, they recently became a father or they play against their old team and want to prove themselves. Such occasions are perfect to commemorate your performance in a match with a goal. It is even more probable when you realise that in such situations, that player’s teammates will try their best to help him score, giving him a penalty to take or creating good chances to score.
College Football Best Bets Today
Example:
Real Madrid (Ronaldo 3’, 27’, Morata 73’) 3:0 Valencia (Cristiano Ronaldo to score in a match)
We win the bet because the player we have selected, Cristiano Ronaldo, scored at least one goal in this match. There are different types of goal scorer bets, such as a bet for the particular player to score two or three goals in a match. A player needs to score at least the amount of goals that we selected for the bet to be successful.