Over Under Strategy
The total will be around 215-220 but is too hard to say it will go over or under 225, so there's no play for this game. Reply 0, Yes Patrick, I'll use an example from today's games. Download App Understanding key numbers when betting NFL over/unders is an important strategy that most recreational bettors ignore. Similar to margins of victory, the total points scored by NFL teams per game have changed since the league moved PAT attempts to the 15-yard line following the 2014 season.
- Over Under Betting Strategy Nfl
- Over Under Basketball Strategy
- Over/under Betting Strategy
- Over Under Betting Strategy Nba
- Over Under Strategy Soccer
- Over Under Betting Strategy Soccer
- Over Under Strategy Nba
If you are looking for an edge when handicapping the over/under in baseball games this season, you have come to the right spot.
This page takes a look at some total systems that have proved to be profitable over an extended period of time.
We are constantly looking to find new systems and strategies for major league baseball totals and will continue to add to this page as we come across more profitable situations.
Profitable Baseball Over/Under Betting Systems & Strategies
Situation #1 – Play UNDER in Game With Streaking Underdogs
Over the course of 162 games you will see bad teams play at a championship level. You will also see elite teams play like cellar dwellers for a period of time.
There lies opportunity for the savvy bettor to cash in on some unlikely occurrences, and the tracks in history they have left behind.
For this system we focus on bad teams who are playing well. This is one of the easiest things to go back and find and has powerful results associated with it regarding totals propositions.
The key is to look for underdogs who have won their last 5 games all as underdogs.
Let’s face it, any team that is posted as an underdog for six straight games isn’t a very good team.
If you consider even odds, the chances of any team winning five straight games is just 3.1%.
When you consider five straight wins as an underdog, the chances are extremely slim (money line odds are all different so there is no exact equation to show these odds).
This system has gone 49-30-3 (62%) to the UNDER since 2004. Which brings home a nice ROI of 17.3%!
*Note that while this system is at it’s strongest using the criteria above, it’s also blindly profitable (53%) when you have a home team that is playing their 6th straight game as a dog and has won at least two straight.
Situation #2 – Play UNDER AL Games With Short Money Line and Total of 10+
This is a pretty simple under system that has profited long-term.
The first thing we want to look for is American League games in which you have a money line of +115 to -115 and total is 10 or more.
Next, we want to focus in on games two and three of a 3-game series , where the first game of the series went over the total.
The reason we use the American League, is because the perception is that these games are higher scoring due to the DH and odds makers tend to shade toward the over because of it.
We use odds of +115 to -115 to zero in on games that are expected to evenly matched.
We use a total of 10 or more to find a bias towards a high scoring game and add in the first game of a series having gone over to add to that bias, as the next games total is typically set a little higher.
Following this system the under has cashed 53.4% of the time over the last 10+ seasons (181-158-11).
How Umpires Can Impact MLB Total Betting Results
If you have been betting baseball long enough, I’m sure it’s crossed your mind that the umpires play a significant role in whether a game goes over or under the total.
There’s plenty of sites out there that list the trends of different umpires behind the plate. While it’s not a bad idea to look at these when breaking down a game, I wouldn’t overreact to the results you see.
Over time most umpires will end up having close to a 50/50 split on the over/under for the games they call, so don’t be fooled by recent trends.
You need to see a big difference long-term before blindly backing a total based on the recent results of the guy behind the plate.
If you want to really use umpire tendencies to your advantage, you need to have a good understanding of what kind of strike zone that umpire has.
Umpires with a small strike zone will often lead to higher-scoring games, Small strike zones force pitchers to throw more pitches over the heart of the plate, which is an advantage for the hitters and can often times lead to more runs being scored.
On the flip side of this, umpires with a big strike zone benefit the under. A smaller strike zone greatly favors the pitcher, as hitters are forced to swing at pitches out of their comfort zone. However, you need to make sure that the starters for that game have the accuracy to take advantage of the big zone.
Over/Under 2.5 goals is the second most traded Betfair sports exchange market, just behind Match odds market.
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How is Over/Under 2.5 goals market played?
2.5 goals may be a bit confusing to bettors or sports traders that are just starting out. But actually, it is very simple!
- Under 2.5 goals means that there will be two or less goals scored in the football game. That includes scorelines: 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, 0-2.
- Over 2.5 goals means that there will be three or more goals scored in the football game. That includes every other scoreline which is not one of the mentioned above.
What is the most popular Over 2.5 goals trading strategy on Betfair?
This is a simple question, because there is only one traditional Over 2.5 goals strategy. And in my opinion, this strategy is not so effective, because of the big liabilities and small potential profit.
I have reviewed this strategy previously here: 6 Proven and Profitable Football / Soccer Betfair Trading Strategies. But we can take another look at this strategy.
Classic Over 2.5 goals Betfair trading strategy
Using this strategy we will use two markets Over/under 2.5 goals market and Correct score market for cover.
This strategy is low-risk, because favourite has to score just one goal and we will be at non-lose point or scratch trade. Then we will have to wait only for 2 more goals from any of the teams for profit. This strategy is also low-reward, because profits from successful trades are not big.
Over Under Betting Strategy Nfl
What are selection criteria for this strategy?
Over Under Basketball Strategy
- Odds on favorite – 1.4-1.7;
- Odds on over 2.5 goals – 1.7 or higher
What bets are placed on this strategy?
- Back bet on over 2.5
- Back bets on Correct scores 1-0, 2-0, 1-1. These bets must cover losses on Over/Under 2.5 goals market. You can adjust these bets – a bit more on possible results and less on not so possible results.
Bets on Correct score market looks like this
As we can see if score turns 1-0 we cant lose anymore as next possible scores are covered (1-1, 2-0) and other possible scores are over 2.5 goals which means profit. If the favourite scores first goal early in the game, we can exit the trade with profit without waiting the game to end. If the odds on over 2.5 goals are higher, we can make a small bet on 0-2 in favor to underdog.
Correct score grid example of over 2.5 goals trading strategy on Betfair
Correct score grid view is one of the ways how to see the full picture of Betfair trading strategies. There is a software called Betpractice ScoreGrid, where you can see on which scorelines you will win and on which loose.
In this example you can see that if the favorite team scores a goal, then we have guaranteed a scratch trade. The only dangerous results are 0-0, 0-1 and 0-2, which are quite unlikely to happen. If wee look at the ROI figures for this football trade, then it is only 18% if there is over 2.5 goals in the match.
What can go wrong?
Over/under Betting Strategy
Of course scoreline 0-0 is the worst, where we loose all our bets in both markets. Therefore if you are watching the game and favorite is not at the best form and score at the halftime is 0-0 it is advised to leave the markets with a loss. Another option is to place a bet from the potential profit on scoreline 0-0. The odds on 0-0 will be shortened to about 4.0. By doing this, the only dangerous scoreline will be 0-1 in favor to underdog.
Over Under Betting Strategy Nba
Summary
Over 2.5 goals is a great strategy for games where you are expecting goals. By the way, you only need one goal for strong favorite and you are in the safe spot! The potential profit is not huge – about 30% of the liability, but if you choose the right games, you will be in long term profits!
What is the most popular Under 2.5 goals Betfair trading strategy?
The most popular Under 2.5 goals Betfair trading strategy is very similar to Over 2.5 strategy, but this time we are going to back Under 2.5 goals and make some Cover bets in Correct score market on few scorelines that are over 2.5 goals.
What are selection criteria for this strategy?
In this strategy we will take into account only the odds of Under 2.5 and they should be around 1.7 – 2.0.
You will have to do a small research of both teams recent form and previous H2H meetings and decide yourself, if this game is going to be under 2.5 goals.
What bets are placed on this strategy?
- Back bet on Under 2.5 goals;
- Back bets on some of Correct scores 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 3-1, 3-0, Any Other Home Win. Here you will have to decide which scores you are going to favor yourself. These bets must cover losses on Over/Under 2.5 goals market. You can adjust these bets – a bit more on possible results and less on not so possible results.
Bets in Correct Score market
It would be a wise move to make a back bet on Any Other Home or Away win, because if the game turns out to be a goal shower, then you will be safe. Covering AOHW or AOAW will be a nice cover for fast 2 goals.
Correct Score grid example of Under 2.5 goals strategy
As you can see in the Correct Score grid example above, there are quite few dangerous scorelines that actually could happen.
What can go wrong?
This strategy does not The most dangerous are 3-0 and 1-2. But 3-0 is just one goal away from safe scorelines, and if there is still plenty of time to be played in a football game, you can asses – wait for another goal or take a small loss by greening up Correct Score market.
1-2 scoreline is dangerous as well. If the result becomes 1-2 late in the game, then there will be nothing much you can do, only hope for an equalizer and scoreline 2-2. If the leading team scores again and the result becomes 1-3 then all your stake is lost.
Conclusion
Under 2.5 goals strategy can be a profitable one, if you choose the right games and everything goes as planned. If it goes wrong, you will be looking at a big loss. The average ROI for this strategy is about 33% which is not bad. If you can choose games with a bit more than 66% accuracy, then you will be seeing long term profits using this Under 2.5 goals Betfair trading strategy.
Over 2.5 goals + BTTS Yes + Correct Score Betfair trading strategy
Let’s look at some hybrid Over 2.5 goals trading strategy, which I am using successfully in my trading journey. I was playing with ScoreGrid Correct Score grid tool and was surprised with the strategy that I crafted.
Over Under Strategy Soccer
It is similar to classic Over 2.5 goals trading strategy in the way, that you need only one goal from favorite team to be in scratch position. In this strategy we are looking for both teams to score a goal and over 2.5 goals, but we have 1-0 and 2-0 to favorite covered.