St Leger Horse Race 2018
The St. Leger Stakes horse race is held in September and is one of the biggest British horse racing events. It is a part of the UK Triple Crown and takes places over the longest distance of the three races. The event has been around since the 18th century which makes it one of the oldest races overall. Even though it has a good reputation, some horse owners do not allow their horses to participate in it due to the long distance. However, many people still go to the racecourse or turn on their TV’s to watch the race.
Horse Race Information
The first day of the St Leger Festival saw the recently retired Ted Durcan win the Leger Legends race on board Central City, who was having his first run for trainer Ian Williams. But Thursday is all about the ladies, the opening three contests are exclusives for fillies and/or mares and the 4.05pm is the Pro-Am Lady Riders’ Race. The Irish St Leger is a Group 1 flat horse race in Ireland open to thoroughbreds aged three years or older. It is run at the Curragh over a distance of 1 mile and 6 furlongs (2,816 metres), and it is scheduled to take place each year in September.
The Doncaster Racecourse hosts the race in September each year. The event takes place on grass, is a flat race, and three-year-old Thoroughbreds can enter in it. However, only colts and fillies are eligible to participate (no geldings). The length of the contest is 2937 meters (1 mile, 6 furlongs, and 132 yards). That means it is two furlongs longer than the longest race in the US Triple Crown – the Belmont Stakes. The winner receives 300,000 GBP from the total prize pool of 500,000 Great British pounds.
St. Leger Stakes Horse Race History
The founder of the race was Charles Watson-Wentworth, and his horse won the first even in 1776. The horse did not have a name, but Watson-Wentworth decided to call it Allabacullia later on. The race was also nameless, and even though there was a proposal of naming it after the founder, he refused and named it after the man who had the first idea for the race – the army officer Anthony St. Leger.
The original distance was two miles, and the event took place at Cantley Common, but the venue was changed after only two years. However, the distance remained the same until 1813 when it was shortened to the current length. The event was not held regularly during the two World Wars, or the racecourse was different. The only year when the St. Leger Stakes did not take place at all was 1939.
The St. Leger Stakes Horse Race serves as inspiration for the Irish St. Leger, the New Zealand St. Leger, the VRC St. Leger, and the French St. Leger.
Betting on the St. Leger Stakes
Many punters like placing a wager on the St. Leger Stakes, and even though the markets open early and you can make your pick in advance, a smarter choice would be to postpone as much as possible before placing a bet. If you cannot attend the racetrack in person, the best alternative would be to use an online gambling site to place your wager. That way you do not have to leave your home, and you also can take advantage of one of the many promotional offers which bookies have.
Best Online Horse Betting Sites Events
St Leger Horse Race 2018 Contenders
Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) (G1) - Data Analysis
Stamina is key in final leg of Triple Crown
With the spring Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) and the summer Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) behind us, all eyes are now on the final leg of the classic Triple Crown. A turf 3,000m distance is likely to be a first experience for the 3-year-old runners, and in the past, we have witnessed dramatic finishes with the horses and jockeys demonstrating great perseverance and tactics. Let’s now analyze some features shared by successful runners in this race from results over the last 10 years.
Prepare for a strong showing by unfavored runners
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we observe that “race favorites” achieved a Top 3 ratio of 80.0%. Meanwhile, runners backed as “2nd-5th favorite” struggled with slightly weak success ratios, while runners backed as “6th–9th favorite” produced nine Top 3 finishers and achieved a Top 3 ratio comparable to those backed as “2nd–5th favorite.” [Table 1]
Favoritism | Performance [1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower] | Win ratio | Top 2 ratio | Top 3 ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|
1st favorite | 6-1-1-2 | 60.0% | 70.0% | 80.0% |
2nd favorite | 0-2-0-8 | 0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
3rd favorite | 1-0-2-7 | 10.0% | 10.0% | 30.0% |
4th favorite | 0-1-0-9 | 0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
5th favorite | 1-2-0-7 | 10.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
6th-9th favorite | 2-2-5-31 | 5.0% | 10.0% | 22.5% |
10th favorite or lower | 0-2-2-86 | 0% | 2.2% | 4.4% |
Watch for runners coming from the Kobe Shimbun Hai (Japanese St. Leger Trial)
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we find that 19 Top 3 finishers contested the Kobe Shimbun Hai (Japanese St. Leger Trial) as their previous race, and that this group also delivered the highest success ratios. At the same time, runners that contested the Asahi Hai St. Lite Kinen (Japanese St. Leger Trial) as their previous race only delivered a Top 3 ratio of 10.0%, below the 13.2% achieved by runners who appeared here from a 3-win class turf race. [Table 2]
Previous race | Performance [1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower] | Win ratio | Top 2 ratio | Top 3 ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kobe Shimbun Hai (Japanese St. Leger Trial) | 8-6-5-51 | 11.4% | 20.0% | 27.1% |
Asahi Hai St. Lite Kinen (Japanese St. Leger Trial) | 1-3-1-45 | 2.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% |
3-win class turf race | 1-0-4-33 | 2.6% | 2.6% | 13.2% |
Sapporo Kinen | 0-1-0-1 | 0% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
Other race | 0-0-0-20 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Watch distance of recent races with a Top 3 finish
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the longest distance for which a Top 3 finish was achieved in their two previous races, we observe that runners that finished in the Top 3 of a “2,400m” race (such as the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) or the Kobe Shimbun Hai (Japanese St. Leger Trial)) achieved the highest Top 3 ratio, at 41.5%. This group was followed by runners that finished in the Top 3 of a “2,200m” race (such as the Asahi Hai St. Lite Kinen (Japanese St. Leger Trial)). Runners that finished in the Top 3 of a “2,500m+” race produced zero winners and runners-up, but two third-place finishers (Yuki Soldier in 2012 and Gold Actor in 2014), both of which were backed as 7th favorites. This suggests we should be prepared for strong performances by runners that have achieved success in long-distance races regardless of their favoritism. [Table 3]
Longest distance | Performance [1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower] | Win ratio | Top 2 ratio | Top 3 ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|
1,700m | 0-0-0-1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
1,800m | 1-0-0-18 | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% |
2,000m | 0-1-1-22 | 0% | 4.2% | 8.3% |
2,200m | 1-2-2-25 | 3.3% | 10.0% | 16.7% |
2,400m | 8-5-4-24 | 19.5% | 31.7% | 41.5% |
2,500m or higher | 0-0-2-13 | 0% | 0% | 13.3% |
No such distance covered in two previous races | 0-2-1-47 | 0% | 4.0% | 6.0% |
Runners with most Top 3 finishes in previous three races are strong performers
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the number of Top 3 finishes achieved in the previous three races, we find that 18 of the 20 Top 2 finishers (including 10 winners) finished in the Top 3 at least twice in the previous three races. Runners with “three” or “two” Top 3 finishes in their three previous races achieved substantially higher success ratios than their counterparts with “one” or “zero” such finishes. Accordingly, it seems we should place a premium on runners that have finished in the Top 3 several times in the previous three races. [Table 4]
Number of Top 3 finishes | Performance [1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower] | Win ratio | Top 2 ratio | Top 3 ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|
Three times | 7-1-1-29 | 18.4% | 21.1% | 23.7% |
Two times | 3-7-4-43 | 5.3% | 17.5% | 24.6% |
One time | 0-0-4-59 | 0% | 0% | 6.3% |
Zero times | 0-2-1-19 | 0% | 9.1% | 13.6% |
Seek out the winner!
Watch for finish in the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas)
Looking at performances by the last 10 winners in the spring of the same year, we observe that five of the 10 winners had run in the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) and also finished in the Top 3. In addition, for the remaining five winners (who did not run in the Satsuki Sho), if we look at their class at the end of April, we note that they were all in either the maiden or allowance classes: three maidens (of which one yet to make his debut) and two in the 1-win class. In other words, we would do well not to overlook allowance-class runners or those who had yet to make their first run at the time of the Satsuki Sho in the spring. [Table 5]
St Leger Horse Race 2018 Entries
Year | Winner | Finish in Satsuki Sho | Class |
---|---|---|---|
2008 | Oken Bruce Lee | Not entered | Maiden |
2009 | Three Rolls | Not entered | 1-win class |
2010 | Big Week | Not entered | Maiden |
2011 | Orfevre | 1st | ‐ |
2012 | Gold Ship | 1st | ‐ |
2013 | Epiphaneia | 2nd | ‐ |
2014 | Toho Jackal | Not entered | Maiden (no previous race) |
2015 | Kitasan Black | 3rd | ‐ |
2016 | Satono Diamond | 3rd | ‐ |
2017 | Kiseki | Not entered | 1-win class |
St Leger Horse Race 2018 Results
(Michio Kawano)