Timeform Derby Ratings

TB Derby 1 1/16 M Dirt. HORSES IN FOCUS AT AQUEDUCT EXPERT COVERAGE FROM NEW YORK. Posted by TimeformUS Our Race Preview Section is your go-to source for daily Highlight Horses and Horses in Focus from our NYRA analyst David Aragona. A Timeform master rating of 128 identifies Kameko as an above-average winner of the Newmarket Classic, but the big question is whether he’ll stay the extra half a mile at Epsom on Saturday. All the latest Epsom Derby odds are just a click away on PaddyPower.com. The rating is suspect or (used alone) the horse is out of form or cannot be assessed with confidence the 'Timeform squiggle'; the horse is unreliable (for temperamental or other reasons) the 'double squiggle'; the horse is so unsatisfactory as to be not worth a rating.

Explaining DRF, BRIS and TimeformUS Past Performances: Daily Racing Form began publishing past performances in 1905 for thoroughbred horse races and leads the field in sales. Other options exist though, including BRIS and TimeformUS.

All three companies rely on Equibase data to create their past performances.

Pick the one that fits best!

DRF

On a basic level, expect to read information relating to the horse’s previous starts (such as their position throughout the race, times, surface, etc.). Pedigree, connections, equipment changes and workouts come standard as well. Plus, the included post positions, program numbers and morning line odds make buying the track program less necessary!

DRF’s own unique Beyer Speed Figures, a number used to adjust the final time and rate how fast the horse actually ran based on track pars for the day, tends to attract the most attention.

For example, former Kentucky Derby champion Orb won a nine furlong optional claiming race on Jan. 26, 2013 in 1:51, and Beyer figure makers gave the colt an 83.

A few months later, Orb won the nine furlong Florida Derby in 1:50 4/5 and earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure.

Looking at raw times alone, the difference ends up being just 1/5 of a second. Using Beyer Speed Figures, one might conclude Orb matured a great deal between those months, as the difference between the two numbers is 14 points or seven lengths. One month later, Orb won the Kentucky Derby.

The Formulator version offers additional features such as pace figures, mud ratings, charts for past races, past performances for each horse in those charts, race replays, expanded pedigree information, customizable features and more statistics.

Purchasing a classic edition single card online currently costs $2.95. Formulator costs a little more.

Prices for the paper version vary depending on location.

Beginner’s Note: Find and buy DRF at every thoroughbred racetrack, or check out their various online versions at the official website.

BRIS

Similar basic information appears on their ultimate past performances, minus Beyer Speed Figures.

BRIS uses their own computer based speed ratings and offers pace ratings under the E1, E2 and LP categories. Pace ratings or figures just equal speed ratings at a certain point in the race.

In Orb’s optional claiming win pointed out earlier, he earned pace ratings of 65, 69 and 105. In the Florida Derby, Orb ran pace ratings of 76, 87 and 103.

Although his late kick stayed powerful in each start, the numbers also show Orb’s improved early speed in the Florida Derby. When a race favors closers such as Orb, most bettors look for the horse with the highest late pace ratings, and certainly horses capable of running over 100 would take consideration.

When the race favors early speed, horses with high early pace figures gain more attention.

Also notice the numbers under the 1c and 2c columns, which indicate if the pace went above or below par.

Another BRIS difference comes from the pedigree data shown near the upper right, which display the sire and damsire’s average winning distance, and winning mud percentages. Also, additional auction information tells handicappers how the horse ranked compared to other horses with the same sire at the sale.

In the case of recent Sam F. Davis winner Ocean Knight, who broke his maiden easily, he sold as the second most expensive Curlin colt at the 2014 OBS March sale.

On top is a “Prime Power” number that translates the information for each horse into one overall number (simplified explanation), and ranks the horse compared to the Prime Power numbers for others.

Race and class ratings under the RR and CR columns round out the major differences. Race ratings evaluate the strength of the field, while class ratings rate the overall performance.

Prepare to pay $3 a card, but different options exist.

Timeform Derby Ratings 2019

If insistent on physical past performances with BRIS, turn on the printer!

Beginner’s Note: Click on this link for free select BRIS past performances, or visit the official website for paid versions.

TimeformUS

Like BRIS, TimeformUS offers nearly the same basic information.

One difference comes from the jockey and trainer ratings, which assign them a score based out of 100. The score relies on the same data DRF and BRIS use for statistics. They only translate those statistics into a number more easily understood.

From an aesthetic standpoint, TimeformUS looks very different. For one, they use colors to highlight certain areas such as track biases, surfaces and extreme pace scenarios. On the left side of each running line is a class rating inside a box. Sometimes the box is colored red to indicate a speed bias, and blue to signal a specific race favored closers.

Farther right, the speed figure column falls next to the finish position, and the color surrounding the speed figure indicates the surface. TimeformUS upgrades horses that ran close to a fast pace, and closers benefiting lose a few points. When the pace runs slow, the opposite happens.

Sometimes the winner receives a lower speed figure, such as in last year’s La Brea S. at Santa Anita. The speedy Taris earned a 110 for accomplishing the “dirty work” setting the pace, and winner Sam’s Sister received a 102. A 102 roughly equates to a low to mid 90s number in Beyer Speed Figures.

In addition, pace figures and the colorful Pace Projector chart help predict the pending race shape.

For pedigree enthusiasts and maiden handicappers, every sibling and their top speed figures are listed after clicking on the breeding information and siblings tab. The dam’s top speed figures show under the dam tab. Plus, handicappers can check the lifetime earnings of the sire, dam and siblings to see if their careers were successful.

Their single card price runs at $3 too and a print option exists.

Beginner’s Note: TimeformUS greatly benefits those that prefer using technology to read past performances. Visit their blog and official website for free examples!

Written by Reinier Macatangay

Frequently Asked Questions about the 2020 TimeformUS Kentucky Derby Package:

Q: How do I get Expert selections, betting strategies, and analysis for all of the stakes races on Kentucky Derby?

A: Race Analysis and Betting Strategies (yes, wagering tickets that you can bet) will be a bit different this year, as TimeformUS’s David Aragona and Craig Milkowski will be teaming up with DRF Analyst Marcus Hersh to evaluate the Derby Day race card. If you purchase the package, the Betting Strategies will be available via the Strategies link at the top of the Churchill Downs PPs for Saturday September 5th. We’ll post the full Derby Day analysis by 5pm on Friday September 3rd. The only way to get all of the selections, analysis and strategies for Kentucky Derby Day is to buy this package.

Timeform Ratings Explanation

Q: What about TimeformUS Past Performances, Pace Projectors, Speed Figures for Derby Day?

A: This package includes UNLIMITED ACCESS to PPs for ALL races at ALL tracks running on Saturday September 5th, from Churchill Downs to Saratoga, from Evangeline Downs to Del Mar, etc.

Oaks Day PPs must be purchased separately.

Timeform Results

Q: Other than the selections and betting strategies (yes–actual tickets!), what exactly comes in the expert analysis?

Timeform Uk

From TimeformUS Chief Figure Maker Craig Milkowski:
Kentucky Derby Pace Projector Preview: Craig will offer expansive commentary on the Pace Projector’s interpretation of the 2020 Derby field, plus an additional analysis of the Turf Classic, the race preceding the Derby. Craig will evaluate both races and assess which horses’ chances should be upgraded based on the pace scenario for each race, plus the impact of pace on the contenders’ performances in recent prep races.

Q: And just to be sure, can you list all of the Stakes Previews & Selections that I will get if I buy this package?

From our analysts David Aragona, Justin Finch, and Craig Milkowski:

Churchill Downs Friday Stakes Analysis and Strategies to be available at the top of the PPs by Thursday May 2nd at noon EDT, and will include write-ups of the four stakes ending with the Kentucky Oaks.

Churchill Downs Saturday Stakes Analysis and Strategies to be available at the top of the PPs by Friday Sept 3rd at 5pm:

Q: I’m already an Unlimited Access PPs Subscriber for $74.95 a month. Will I get the Kentucky Derby Weekend Package as part of this subscription?

A: If you’re on our Unlimited Monthly PP Plan, you’ll get access to all the PPs, but you’ll need to separately buy the Derby Weekend Package to gain access to the Betting Strategies from our experts. Please note: Unlimited Annual Subscribers ($699 a year, email us at tfussupport@drf.com if interested) have access to all Betting Strategy Content.

Once you’ve purchased the package, access Contender PPs here.

Other questions? Email us and we’ll help you out.